Kent State has been a road favorite 5 times this year. In those games they are 4-1 SU and ATS with their only loss coming in their last road game @ Buffalo. That game they were just -1 and today they are -4 against a Bowling Green team that looks good as a home dog because they are 9-3 and their home stats look good as well.
However, when Bowling Green has been a home under dog they are 0-2 SU and ATS this season. In their 8 NCAA-1 wins at home as 1 of their wins was to a non division 1 school. Their opponents have an average RPI of 215. Their strength of schedule is far below what Kent State has faced up until this point.
Now you may look at Kent STate's road stats and the fact that Bowling Green beat them in their own building as reasons not to back them. K State is shooting just 40.8% form the field on the road this year. However, they have had tough road games @ Pitt, Xavier, and South Florida. If you take a look at games where they are road favorites which were 5 games they have shot an incredible 49.2% from the field when you take out their "off game" vs. Buffalo and 51.9% from three point land. Those are against teams that are on the same level as Bowling Green.
Now you may say what about them beating them the first time. Well Bowling Green just shot off the charts which is odd against a Kent State team that is one of the best in the conference in defense including 28.3% against the three. Bowling Green shot over 50% from three point and it was from Scott Thomas and Dee Brown who combined for 48 points which is 24.3 points over their season average. I expect these two average players to return to normal. Kent State actually needs this game more than Bowling Green as they are only playing for their seeding int he MAC tournament while Kent State is looking for the crown as they hold a small lead over Akron.
Look for Justin Greene and MAC player of the year candidate Chris Singletary to have huge games in what will seem like a must win for them. Kent State has won 18 of the last 25 meetings between these two and are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 @ Bowling Green. Tonight they get revenge for their last loss.
Florida State has some new focus after their loss at Clemson and they got back to back wins including a road win at Virginia by 19 points. Florida State is the ACC's leading defense in scoring defense and FG% defense. They are just 4-5 on the road, but still have great numbers. Their road losses are against premium competition of Clemson, Duke, Maryland, Ohio State, and Florida. They have three quality games that they have won on the road an this will be the first time they are favorites. Which you might have to scratch your head because North Carolina is 12-4 at home this year, but they are just 3-9 in the conference and have beaten the worst team twice for two of those three wins. They also beat Virginia Tech, but they were -8 favorites so no shock there.
FSU has not allowed an opponent to shoot over 47% from the field this season, and they won't here tonight. UNC is averaging 48.1% from the field at home but a closer look at their home games in conference play results in a 2-4 overall record where they were under dogs just once against Duke. They shot 39.7% from the field in those games and 28.5% from the perimeter. Their defense also gets worse as they have given up 40% from the three on defense. Now FSU does not really hurt teams from the perimeter and this is a good match up for UNC. They can rebound and play defense too, but I think the better defensive team will prevail big time.
FSU absolutely needs this game while UNC is really playing for absolutely nothing. I really look for FSU to come out and dominate physically and defensively to win this game. FSU is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings including an outright win as +9 dogs here last year against a Championship UNC team. They have all the confidence knowing they should win tonight and I don't think they will have a let down.
